2022 brings fifth warmest April on Earth » Yale Climate Connections

April 2022 tied April 2010 for Earth’s fifth-warmest April since global recording began in 1880, 0.85 degrees Celsius (1.53 °F) above the 20th-century average, the National Centers reported. of NOAA Environmental Information, NCEI, on May 13. NASA rated April 2022 as the seventh warmest April on record, 1.10 degrees Celsius (1.98 °F) above the 1880-1920 period, its best estimate of when pre-industrial temperatures last occurred. The European Climate Change Service Copernicus rated April 2022 as the sixth warmest April on record. Minor differences in the agencies’ rankings may be due to the different ways they treat data-sparse regions, such as the Arctic.

Land areas had their sixth-warmest April on record in 2022, and global ocean temperatures were the eighth-warmest on record, according to NOAA. Asia had its warmest April on record, with the heat especially intense in India and Pakistan. Oceania had its fifth warmest April on record, and Africa tied for ninth warmest. In contrast, the contiguous United States experienced slightly cooler temperatures than historical Aprils, ranking in the 50 coldest since 1895.

The year-to-date global surface temperature was the fifth-highest on record, and the year 2022 has more than a 99% chance of ranking in the top 10 warmest years on record, and about a 28% chance of ranking in the bottom 10. top five, NOAA said. There is only a 1.4% chance that 2022 will rank as the warmest year on record, largely because La Niña conditions are now more likely to prevail throughout the year (see below).

Figure 1. Average temperature departure for April 2022, tied for the world’s fifth-warmest April since recordkeeping began in 1880, according to NOAA. Record warm temperatures in April were observed in parts of central South America, the Oceania area, the southwestern Pacific Ocean, and a large area in South and Southwest Asia and Northeast Africa. No large area experienced record cold. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

Deadliest weather disaster so far in 2022: South Africa floods

The deadliest weather disaster so far in 2022 occurred from April 7-13, when catastrophic flooding hit the KwaZulu-Natal region of South Africa after a stalled low-pressure system dumped torrential rain. More than 300 mm (12 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours near the coastal city of Durban on April 11 and 12. The disaster killed at least 435 and caused more than $1.5 billion in damage. Heavy rains are more likely in South Africa when, as is currently the case, a La Niña event is present.

The second deadliest weather disaster so far this year was the flooding in Brazil on February 15, which triggered a landslide that killed 232 people in the Petrópolis area.

Figure 2. Deviation of sea surface temperature from the average in the Niño 3.4 reference region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W). Temperatures have been 0.7 to 1.0 degrees Celsius below average since mid-April. (Image credit: Tropical Things)

The girl persists

La Niña conditions persisted through April and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and into fall and early winter (58% chance during August-October and 61% chance November-January). NOAA reported in its April monthly discussion on the status of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The chances of an El Niño event do not exceed 5% until early 2023.

Over the past month, sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Niño 3.4 reference region (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) were around 0.9 degrees Celsius below of the average. “Weak” La Niña conditions range from 0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius below average; the range for “moderate” La Niña conditions is 1.0 to 1.5 degrees Celsius below average.

The forecast from NOAA and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University for the height of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-September-October) is a 58% chance of La Niña, a 38% chance of neutral ENSO and a 4% chance of El Niño. If it did happen, a third consecutive northern La Niña winter in 2022-23 would be unusual but not unprecedented: three-year La Niña sequences occurred in 1973-76 and 1998-2001.

Atlantic hurricane seasons during El Niño events tend to be quiet due to increased vertical wind shear over the Atlantic. With the current forecast indicating only a small chance of an El Niño, a seventh consecutive active Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2022.

The impact of the current La Niña event may be enhanced by a strongly negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. The PDO is an index of sea surface temperatures across the tropical and northeastern Pacific Ocean that reflects some of the circulation aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The PDO can swing wildly from month to month, but it typically leans positive (warm) or negative (cold) for a few years at a time. Nearly every month since 2017 has had a negative PDO, and the April value was the second lowest for any April since 1956. When the PDO is negative, La Niña impacts are typically more pronounced.

Arctic sea ice: 11th lowest April extent on record

Arctic sea ice extent during April 2022 was the 11th lowest in the 44-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC. Some relatively good news there, but sea ice extent was tracking near the bottom 10 percent of historical values, and the long-term decline in Arctic sea ice is unlikely to have stopped.

Antarctic sea ice extent in April was the fifth lowest on record.

Notable Global Hot and Cold Brands for April 2022

The following information is courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera. Follow him on Twitter: @extremetemps:

– April highest temperature in the northern hemisphere: 49.0 °C (120.2 °F) in Jacobabad, Pakistan, April 30;
– Coldest April temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -52.5 °C (-62.5 °F) in Summit, Greenland, April 10;
– Highest April temperature in the southern hemisphere: 42.1 °C (107.8 °F) in Mandora, Australia, April 14;
– Coldest April temperature in the southern hemisphere: -79.4 °C (-110.9 °F) in Concordia, Antarctica, April 17;
– Highest average temperature of 2022 to date (January-April) in the southern hemisphere: 32.6 °C (90.7 °F) in Roebourne and Marble Bar, Australia; Y
– Highest average temperature of 2022 to date (January-April) in the northern hemisphere: 32.7 °C (90.9 °F) in Kenieba, Mali.

Major Weather Stations in April: No Historical Records for Hot or Cold

Among global seasons with a record of at least 40 years, none set, not just tied, an all-time record for hot or cold in April.

Three all-time national/territorial heat records set or tied in 2022

By the end of April, three nations or territories had set or tied an all-time national record for reliably measured heat:

Paraguay: 114.1°F (45.6°C) in Hovy Hat, Jan. 1;
Australia: 123.3 F (50.7 C) at Onslow AP, Jan 13 (tie); Y
Uruguay: 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Florida, January 14 (tie).

Two all-time national/territorial cold records set or tied in 2022

As of the end of April, two nations or territories had set or tied an all-time national cold record:

montenegro: -33.4°C (-28.1°F) in Kosanica, January 25; Y
burma: -6.0°C (-21.2°F) in Hakha, January 29 (tie).

Nineteen additional monthly national/territorial heat records broken or tied by the end of April

In addition to the three all-time national/territorial records listed above, 19 nations or territories have set all-time monthly heat records in 2022, for a total of 22 all-time monthly records:

– January (11): Mexico, USA, Croatia, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Comoros, Mayotte, Maldives, Dominica, Equatorial Guinea, Montenegro;
– February (2): Papua New Guinea, Pakistan;
– March (3): Myanmar, Pakistan, Mauritius;
– April (3): British Indian Ocean Territories, Hong Kong, Chad

Four additional national/territorial cold records broken or tied at the end of April

In addition to the two all-time national/territory records listed above, four nations or territories have set all-time monthly cold records in 2022, for a total of six all-time monthly records:

– March (2): Montenegro and Cyprus;
– April (2): Andorra, Laos

Hemispheric and continental temperature records in 2022

– Highest temperature ever recorded in January in North America: 41.7 °C (107.1 °F) in Gallinas, Mexico, January 1;

– Highest temperature ever recorded in the southern hemisphere (tie) and world record for highest temperature ever recorded in January: 50.7 °C (123.3 °F) at Onslow AP, Australia, January 13;

– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in South America: 32.2 °C (90.0 °F) in Pampa del Infierno, Argentina, January 17; Y

– The highest minimum temperature ever recorded in January in the Northern Hemisphere: 29.3 °C (84.7 °F) in Kenieba, Mali, on January 15 (and again on January 30).

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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