The US intelligence community has assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to abandon the war in Ukraine and allow it to continue for a while – and meanwhile, Putin may resort to extreme measures to ensure that Russia eventually wins. , top US spies warned on Tuesday.
Among the next steps Putin can take include increasing domestic measures that could contribute to the war effort, such as the imposition of martial law, U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines said at a briefing Tuesday.
“The uncertain nature of the war…combined with the fact that Putin is facing a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities, it’s likely in the next few months.” [be] the more unpredictable and potentially escalating,” DNI Haines told senators. It increases the possibility of turning to vehicles.”
Haines’ assessment, which he presented to lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, comes as Russia enters day 76 of its war in Ukraine. Russian forces have moved to take eastern Ukraine in recent weeks after failing to take the capital, Kiev, in the early days of the war due to a series of logistical and planning issues.
Scott Berrier, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), said on Tuesday that the war had somehow started to reach a “stalemate” as the Russian military shifted its attention to the Donbas or eastern parts of Ukraine.
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“I would characterize it as the Russians not winning and the Ukrainians not winning, and we’re at a bit of a stalemate here,” Berrier said.
While Putin doesn’t see Donbas as the last stop in Ukraine, Haines warned, citing more massacres on the way. Haines said Putin sees this as a “temporary” focus so that the Russian military can “regain the initiative”.
“We are not sure that the war in Donbas will actually end the war,” Haines said. “We assess that President Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, while still intending to achieve goals beyond the Donbas.”
Putin’s assessment that he can climb, the Russians II. It came the day after Victory Day in Russia, when they celebrated victory in World War II – a day when US and Ukrainian officials warned Putin to mobilize more troops for the war. But Victory Day came and passed without any popular movement.
But the Russians are starting to see signs that Putin is secretly doing legwork to attract more resources to keep the war effort working in the near term, just as Haines warned against doubling down on Putin. Employees of the Moscow Metro recently threatened that they could be sent to war in case of a possible mobilization. Appealing to Military Service in Russia and Verstka.media uses the term Russia to describe the war in Ukraine.
“At a meeting at the subway depot… all men were ordered to undergo an extraordinary medical examination, to be later sent to a possible war in Ukraine,” he said, adding that they could be fired or face criminal charges if they disobeyed. “It was made clear and unequivocal that the leadership had to allocate a certain number of people to be sent to a possible war.”
The Daily Beast has not independently verified the claims.
Russia has already lost tens of thousands of soldiers in the occupation and has been searching for alternative sources of manpower for weeks. Russia looks to Syria for more fighters. Wall Street Magazine Russia’s defense minister said Russia has recruited 16,000 people from the Middle East to also fight in Ukraine.
Members of Congress have been questioning the US intelligence community for weeks over whether the Kremlin is connecting with mercenaries working for a private Russian contractor known as the Wagner Group.
Haines confirmed on Tuesday that the Russian government did indeed pull Wagner for operations in Ukraine. “We see Wagner being used in Ukraine. We see that,” Haines said. “Russia has effectively deployed them in Ukraine.”
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The US intelligence community’s assessment that Putin is planning to continue the war for a while could spell disaster in the future. Haines warned that Putin could become more prone to miscalculation and to use nuclear weapons.
He said Putin would only authorize the use of nuclear weapons “if he perceives an existential threat to the Russian state”, adding that “with tensions this high, there is always an increasing potential for miscalculation – an unintentional escalation”.
“There is no imminent potential for Putin to use nuclear weapons,” Haines said.
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